Wrapping up the holiday season

As the waves die down and the first rays of light peak through the clouds, the storm is beginning to pass and the Q4 holiday season is coming to an end.

Forgive me for waxing poetic, but this season has been a particularly intriguing (and busy) one. For this first post in over a month, there are too many things to talk about all at once, but at least I can start building some momentum again with what is going on right now.

The most interesting question to me is how this week will end. This year I expect to see more of a pronounced late run in sales than in years past. Of course it has been documented quite well that sales have been hit by the economic conditions and per capita spending is down. However, ecommerce is still driving hard as has been the case for the past several years. I expect this will lead to some significant changes in strategy early next year for many companies, but let’s save that for a future post.

For now, there are several factors at play which should keep retailers on guard until at least Monday, 12/22. Historically the busy season is on it’s way down at this point, however there are 3 things I believe will keep this week busy:

1) The shortened holiday season initiated by the late Thanksgiving (5 days shorter than last year)
2) The early hand wringing over the economy leading to pent up demand
3) The latest news that consumers are doing last minute shopping online this year instead of rushing through malls

All of this should lead to a better late trend in holiday shopping for 2008. I advise everyone before completely letting your guard down by the end of this week, to see what the weekend brings.  Also, get to work thinking and planning about post Christmas sales. Since many people won’t get the same barrage of presents this year, expect some demand in the last days of 2008.

December 16th, 2008